Why Americans Trust Trump Over Biden on Crime: Polls Show a Clear Divide

Note: A full video segment highlighting CNN’s Harry Enten’s analysis on this issue is included at the end of this article.

Introduction: Crime and the Political Battleground

For decades, crime has ranked among the most powerful and politically divisive issues in the United States. From concerns about rising urban violence to fears over property theft and public safety, it has consistently shaped voter priorities across elections.

Even as nationwide crime statistics fluctuate—with some categories showing long-term declines—public concern about safety remains stubbornly high. A growing body of recent polling and analysis suggests that Americans now place far more trust in former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party than in President Joe Biden and the Democrats when it comes to handling crime.

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten, along with surveys conducted by YouGov, AP-NORC, and long-term reviews from Vox, underscores a clear trend: Republicans hold a lasting advantage on the crime issue, and Trump himself has turned what was once a weakness into a potent political strength.

Americans’ Persistent Worry Over Crime

Polling conducted throughout 2025 reveals that Americans continue to see crime as one of the nation’s most pressing problems.

• A YouGov survey in May 2025 found that 67% of respondents said crime in U.S. cities was a “major problem.”

• An AP-NORC poll conducted earlier this year placed the number even higher: 81% of Americans view crime in major cities as a serious concern, spanning party lines and demographics.

While FBI data and other statistics sometimes show downward trends in violent crime compared to past decades, public perception does not always align. Vivid news coverage, viral social media videos, and lived community experiences often drive the belief that crime is worsening.

As Enten noted, this “perception gap” makes it easier for politicians who adopt “tough on crime” rhetoric to gain traction, regardless of the underlying statistics.

The Republican Advantage

Crime is not just a bipartisan concern—it’s a partisan weapon.

Vox’s long-term review of polling shows that since at least 2022, Republicans have maintained a consistent 12–13 point lead over Democrats when voters are asked which party they trust more to handle crime.

This gap has remained stable even as other political issues—such as the economy, health care, and immigration—have fluctuated in importance or shifted partisan balance.

Harry Enten emphasized in his CNN analysis that Trump, in particular, has made notable gains:

• During his presidency, Trump often received mixed reviews on crime.

• Today, polls indicate that a growing share of Americans now view him as stronger on public safety than Biden, a reversal from earlier perceptions.

Why Trump Gains, While Biden Struggles

1. Perception of Action

Trump has cultivated an image of decisiveness and toughness. From federal crackdowns in Washington, D.C., to promises of stronger law-and-order policies, he frequently portrays himself as unafraid to act boldly.

Voters, research shows, often reward the perception of toughness even if they disagree with specifics.

2. Democratic Messaging Gaps

Democrats often highlight national statistics showing that crime is lower than in previous decades. But this approach sometimes clashes with voters’ personal experiences.

As political commentator Chris Matthews once warned, telling voters that “violent crime is down” while they witness or hear about murders, thefts, or assaults in their communities risks sounding dismissive.

3. Legacy of Partisan Framing

For decades, Republicans have successfully framed themselves as the “law-and-order” party. Dating back to the 1970s and 1980s, GOP campaigns consistently associated Democrats with softness on crime. That legacy still benefits Republicans today, even as Democrats attempt to balance public safety with reform-oriented policies.

Biden and Democrats: A Mixed Record

President Biden has not ignored the issue. He has supported increased police funding, invested in community safety programs, and pledged resources to local law enforcement. However, his administration’s messaging has often been overshadowed by internal party divisions.

Progressive activists frequently advocate for criminal justice reforms, emphasizing reduced incarceration, systemic equity, and shifting funds toward social services. While these goals resonate with younger and more progressive voters, they conflict with the tougher stance that polling shows most Americans still favor.

The result is mixed messaging that fails to reassure independents and swing voters. In multiple surveys, Democrats trail Republicans significantly on:

• Handling urban violence

• Ensuring public safety

• Supporting law enforcement

Even among independents—a decisive voting bloc—Republicans maintain a commanding lead.

Harry Enten’s Warning

Harry Enten’s analysis carries weight because he is not a partisan strategist but a respected data journalist. His conclusion: Democrats underestimate how hawkish Americans remain on crime.

Enten observed that while Trump once struggled with public perception on crime, his standing has improved considerably. Today, more Americans say they trust Trump to manage crime than at any point during his presidency.

This suggests that Trump’s messaging and actions resonate in ways Biden’s have not, making crime a significant political advantage for Republicans heading into future elections.

Broader Implications: Beyond Crime Alone

The debate over crime intersects with other pressing political concerns:

• Border Security and Immigration: Many voters link illegal immigration with crime, regardless of data.

• Homelessness: Visible encampments in major cities contribute to perceptions of lawlessness.

• Government Competence: High-profile incidents of violence often fuel broader distrust in leaders’ ability to maintain order.

For Trump, this provides a political opportunity. By presenting himself as a decisive figure willing to restore order, he strengthens his law-and-order credentials. For Democrats, however, the challenge is balancing reformist ideals with the electorate’s clear demand for safety and security.

What’s at Stake for 2026 and 2028

Looking ahead to the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election, crime remains a critical vulnerability for Democrats. Unless they find a way to connect with voter concerns more effectively, they risk conceding the issue entirely to Republicans.

Bridging this gap will require:

• Clearer communication about policies that combine public safety with fairness.

• A willingness to confront the perception gap between crime statistics and lived experiences.

• Unified messaging across moderate and progressive factions of the Democratic Party.

Without these shifts, Republicans—and Trump in particular—are poised to maintain their advantage.

Conclusion: Trust, Perception, and Politics

At its core, the debate over crime is about more than numbers. It is about trust, perception, and the basic human desire for safety.

Right now, Americans overwhelmingly trust Donald Trump and Republicans more than Joe Biden and Democrats to deliver on that promise. Unless Democrats can recalibrate their approach, they may continue to lose ground on one of the most emotionally charged and politically decisive issues in American life.

Watch the full video analysis by CNN’s Harry Enten at the end of this article for a deeper dive into the polling data and political trends shaping this debate.

Ethan Blake

Ethan Blake is a skilled Creative Content Specialist with a talent for crafting engaging and thought-provoking narratives. With a strong background in storytelling and digital content creation, Ethan brings a unique perspective to his role at TheArchivists, where he curates and produces captivating content for a global audience.

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