NOTE:VIDEO AT THE END OF ARTICLE.
As California approaches its 2026 gubernatorial election, speculation has swirled around the possibility of former Vice President Kamala Harris returning to her home state to seek the governor’s mansion. While Harris enjoyed broad name recognition and a trailblazing career—from San Francisco District Attorney to U.S. Senator to Vice President—her potential bid has not ignited universal enthusiasm among the state’s most influential policy insiders. A recent survey conducted jointly by Politico and UC Berkeley’s Citrin Center sheds new light on how California’s “policy influencers”—legislators, staffers, advocacy leaders, and keenly engaged news subscribers—feel about Harris’s prospects. The findings reveal a cautious, even indifferent, attitude toward a figure once hailed as California’s rising political star.
This article provides a comprehensive, professional analysis of the survey results, situating them within the broader context of California politics, demographic considerations, and Harris’s own recent public statements. We will examine why key influencers are holding back enthusiasm, explore how registered voters differ in their reactions, and consider the political implications for both Harris and the Democratic Party as they plan for the post‑Newsom era.
I. Background: California’s 2026 Open Seat and Harris’s Political Trajectory
California Governor Gavin Newsom, first elected in 2018 and re‑elected in 2022, is term‑limited from seeking a third consecutive term in 2026. This impending vacancy has already prompted a crowded prospective field, including former U.S. Housing Secretary Xavier Becerra, among others. It is widely presumed that whomever secures the Democratic nomination will be heavily favored to win the general election, given California’s deep blue voter registration and partisan lean.
Kamala Harris’s career path makes her a natural contender in the eyes of many. After an early tenure as San Francisco’s district attorney (2004–2011), she served two terms as California Attorney General (2011–2017). Elected to the U.S. Senate in 2016, she rose to national prominence with her sharp debate performances and progressive policy positions. In 2020, Joe Biden tapped her as his running mate, and she served as Vice President from January 2021 until January 2025. Yet her narrow loss to President Trump in the 2024 election—not to mention ongoing debates about her tenure—appears to have tempered the enthusiasm of the very insiders whose support often shapes early momentum.
II. Survey Methodology and Respondent Profile
The Politico/UC Berkeley Citrin Center survey targeted a specialized cohort often referred to as “policy influencers”: state and federal elected officials, legislative staff, lobbyists, nonprofit leaders, think‑tank scholars, and paid subscribers to Politico’s California‑focused publications (California Playbook, POLITICO Pro in California, California Climate). This group, while not wholly representative of the general electorate, wields considerable sway over agenda‑setting, fundraising, media narratives, and endorsement decisions.
Key details of the methodology include:
Sample Size & Demographics: Approximately 500 respondents participated, spanning various roles within California’s public policy ecosystem.
Question Format: Participants were asked whether they felt “outraged,” “irritated,” “indifferent,” “mostly excited,” or “extremely excited” at the prospect of Harris entering the 2026 gubernatorial race.
Survey Timing: Fielded in late spring 2025, shortly after Harris’s first public appearances since the November 2024 election.
By focusing on this insider segment, the survey provides an early barometer of establishment sentiment well before primary battle lines are drawn. However, subsequent polling among broader voter groups is also critical to understanding overall electability.
III. Insider Sentiment: A Tepid Reception
Perhaps most striking is the fact that a plurality—36% of policy influencers—reported being “indifferent” to Harris’s potential candidacy. Another 20% said they were “irritated,” while 4% described themselves as “outraged.” Only 22% registered as “mostly excited,” and a mere 18% felt “extremely excited.”
Breakdown of Insider Reactions
Indifferent (36%): This dominant category suggests that, for many insiders, Harris’s entry into the race would neither energize nor alarm established players. They may view her as yet another contender in a crowded Democratic field.
Irritated/Outraged (24% combined): Nearly one‑quarter of respondents expressed overt negativity. Some insiders reportedly question Harris’s viability after her 2024 defeat and skepticism over her leadership style.
Mostly/Extremely Excited (40% combined): While less than half, this bloc includes insiders who continue to champion Harris for her historic career milestones, fundraising prowess, and ability to draw media attention.
Insiders’ lukewarm reaction contrasts sharply with the excitement typically generated by prospective frontrunners. For comparison, similar early‑stage surveys of Gavin Newsom in 2017 showed excitement levels closer to 60–70% among policy influencers as he prepared for his first gubernatorial campaign.
IV. Registered Voters: A More Favorable Outlook
By contrast, polling among registered California voters paints a somewhat more positive picture for Harris. In state‑level surveys conducted in early 2025:
41% of Democrats said they would be “most excited” to see Harris run, with an additional 33% reporting that they’d be “joyful.”
Only 26% of Democrats were “indifferent” or “irritated.”
Among minority voters, the enthusiasm remained robust: 35% reported “joyful” reactions, while 38% were “mostly excited.”
However, pockets of frustration remain: 19% of Latino voters were “hopeless” at the idea of her candidacy, and 19% of Asian‑American respondents said they were “irritated.”
These figures suggest that while insiders hesitate, a significant slice of the broader Democratic base would likely embrace Harris, particularly given her historical ties to California and her role as the first female, first Black, and first South Asian Vice President.
V. Understanding the Insider Reluctance
Why are California’s policy wonks and power brokers so reserved? Several factors may account for their skepticism:
Electoral Aftermath of 2024
Harris’s loss to Trump in November 2024—by a margin that stacked her against an incumbent with solid high‑turnout strongholds—left some insiders questioning her statewide appeal. Whereas Newsom comfortably won re‑election in 2022, Harris was unable to carry her home state for the presidency.
Perceived Candidacy Fatigue
Having served consecutive terms as district attorney, attorney general, U.S. Senator, and Vice President, Harris represents continuity for some and staleness for others. Insiders may be looking for fresh faces or regional candidates more closely vetted through state politics.
Campaign Infrastructure Concerns
Successful California gubernatorial bids typically require deep fundraising networks, on‑the‑ground organizations, and local endorsements. Some insiders speculate that Harris’s national apparatus may not seamlessly translate to a state‑centric, grassroots operation.
Internal Party Dynamics
Potential rival camps—such as those rallying around Xavier Becerra, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, or Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas—may actively lobby against a Harris bid, preferring to consolidate support behind candidates with fewer political liabilities.
Policy and Perception
Despite her progressive credentials, Harris has faced critique for perceived inconsistencies on issues like law enforcement and immigration. In the wake of nationwide debates over public safety, homelessness, and climate policy, insiders may harbor doubts about her ability to navigate California’s unique policy challenges.
VI. Harris’s Own Position and Public Presence
Since conceding the 2024 presidential election, Harris has maintained a relatively low public profile—avoiding the spotlight while making selective appearances. Notably:
Black Women’s Leadership Summit (Spring 2025)
In her first major public address post‑election, Harris declared, “I’m not going anywhere,” signaling her intent to remain an active figure in public service. Her speech emphasized resilience, community organizing, and policy priorities such as reproductive rights and voting access.
Private Consultations
Reports indicate that Harris has engaged in closed‑door conversations with key Democratic donors and California power brokers, weighing her options ahead of a formal announcement expected by summer’s end.
Fundraising Activity
Though she has yet to officially declare, Harris has reportedly directed advisors to explore “draft” fundraising committees, a common precursor to an official campaign launch.
Despite these signals, Harris has candidly acknowledged the need to “shake off” the sting of her presidential defeat. As long as she remains noncommittal, insiders may interpret her ambiguity as a lack of full‑throated commitment—further dampening early enthusiasm.
VII. Implications for the 2026 Democratic Primary
The insiders’ cool reception to Harris has several strategic implications:
Early Endorsements May Bypass Harris
If key legislative leaders and party figures withhold or delay endorsements, Harris could struggle to establish early momentum—particularly in down‑ballot districts where local endorsements carry significant weight.
Primary Debate Dynamics
Harris’s entry could reshape the primary’s narrative, pivoting debates toward national issues like foreign policy or civil rights. Yet if insiders prioritize state‑specific concerns—housing affordability, wildfire mitigation, K–12 education funding—they may favor candidates with more direct experience tackling these challenges.
Fundraising Competition
Insiders’ ambivalence may manifest in donor hesitance, driving early checks toward multiple candidates rather than consolidating behind Harris. A divided donor pool can hamper unified messaging in the crucial opening weeks of a campaign.
Voter Turnout and Enthusiasm Gaps
While registered Democratic voters overall show stronger enthusiasm, the small but vocal subset of “hopeless” or “irritated” minority voters could translate into uneven turnout across key demographics. Mobilization efforts will be essential to offset any pockets of disaffection.
VIII. Looking Beyond 2026: Harris’s National Prospects
Even if Harris opts against a 2026 gubernatorial bid, or if she falters in the primary, her political journey may continue on the national stage:
2028 Presidential Race
Multiple commentators view Harris as a viable 2028 contender—especially if the Democratic field lacks an incumbent or a clear frontrunner. Her tenure as Vice President and her statewide name recognition would position her favorably among primary voters seeking experience and diversity.
Cabinet or Advisory Role
Harris could leverage her extensive Capitol Hill and executive branch experience in a future administration, potentially advising on justice reform, civil rights, or international partnerships.
Academic and Philanthropic Leadership
Many former high‑level officials transition into think‑tank leadership or university posts. Harris’s policy expertise and fundraising acumen would make her a sought‑after figure in non‑profit governance or higher education.
IX. Conclusion
The Politico/UC Berkeley Citrin Center survey paints a nuanced portrait of California’s insider class: neither uniformly hostile nor enthusiastically supportive of Kamala Harris’s potential 2026 gubernatorial run. Their indifference and irritation reflect a pragmatic calculation—rooted in recent electoral history, intra‑party dynamics, and questions about campaign infrastructure—rather than outright rejection of her leadership potential.
Yet the broader Democratic electorate, particularly minority voters, continues to view Harris favorably, suggesting that a well‑organized, fully committed campaign could still generate substantial grassroots momentum. In the coming months, Harris will weigh whether to marshal her national profile toward a statewide contest or to reserve her influence for a future national pursuit.
For Democratic strategists, the insiders’ lukewarm response serves as a reminder that name recognition alone does not guarantee party unity. As California prepares to choose its next governor—someone who will shape housing, environment, and education policy for the nation’s most populous state—both Harris and her potential rivals must cultivate broad‑based coalitions that extend beyond party elites to capture the enthusiasm of everyday Californians.
Whether Kamala Harris ultimately decides to enter the 2026 race, and whether she can convert her national stature into deep, on‑the‑ground support, remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that enthusiasm among policy insiders will be a critical early indicator—and their current “meh” could either challenge Harris to prove her mettle or pave the way for a new generation of California leaders to emerge.
BREAKING: In a stunning appearance , Kamala Harris just spoke out for the first time against Donald Trump in his second term. This is amazing. pic.twitter.com/kTf1CJKdQ5
— Democratic Wins Media (@DemocraticWins) April 4, 2025
Adrian Hawthorne is a celebrated author and dedicated archivist who finds inspiration in the hidden stories of the past. Educated at Oxford, he now works at the National Archives, where preserving history fuels his evocative writing. Balancing archival precision with creative storytelling, Adrian founded the Hawthorne Institute of Literary Arts to mentor emerging writers and honor the timeless art of narrative.