Poll Shows Most Maine Voters Oppose Collins Running for Re-election in 2026
A recent poll reveals that a significant majority of Maine voters would prefer to see Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) retire rather than run for another term. Collins, who was first elected to the Senate in 1996, has long been considered a moderate voice within the Republican Party, known for breaking with her party on certain key issues. However, as the 2026 election approaches, it appears that her future in the Senate may be in question, with many Mainers expressing their desire for a change.
Collins’ Political Legacy and Growing Discontent
Senator Collins has built a long and storied career in the Senate, earning a reputation as one of the more moderate Republican lawmakers in Washington. Throughout her tenure, she has developed a track record of crossing party lines, most notably on issues like healthcare and judicial nominations. This willingness to break ranks with her party has earned her both admiration and criticism, especially among those who see her as too willing to compromise or, conversely, not conservative enough.
However, despite her centrist reputation, recent polling suggests that many Maine voters are ready for a change. A survey conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows that 71% of Mainers believe Collins should retire, compared to just 21% who think she should run for another term. This overwhelming opposition is a notable shift, given Collins’ strong political presence and her ability to win over independent and moderate voters in past elections.
The poll’s breakdown further illustrates the depth of the sentiment across party lines. Among Democrats, 84% support the idea of Collins stepping down. A majority of independents (67%) also oppose her re-election bid, while 57% of Republicans surveyed feel the same way. The findings suggest that the desire for new leadership transcends party affiliation, reflecting a broader frustration with Collins’ political approach and her perceived alignment with the GOP establishment.
The 2026 Election and Its Significance for Maine
Senator Collins’ current term is set to expire in 2026, and while she has publicly stated her intention to run for re-election, the upcoming race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive Senate contests in recent memory. Maine, traditionally a state that leans Democratic in presidential elections, has become a battleground for both parties in recent years. Collins, who narrowly won re-election in 2020, faces growing challenges in securing her seat, especially given the shifting political dynamics in the state and across the nation.
The 2020 election was particularly contentious for Collins, who won her fourth term with 51% of the vote, defeating Democrat Sara Gideon, the former Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives. Despite Collins’ victory, the race was closer than anticipated, with some Democrats distancing themselves from her after her controversial vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018. The close margin underscored the increasingly competitive nature of Maine’s Senate races, which had previously been more one-sided in Collins’ favor.
The 2020 race was also marked by the introduction of ranked-choice voting in Maine, which further complicated the dynamics of the election. Although Collins managed to secure a victory, she fell short of the 50% threshold in the first round of voting, forcing a second-round count. The use of ranked-choice voting in future elections could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2026 race, particularly if Collins fails to secure a strong base of support among voters in the first round.
The Role of Ranked-Choice Voting in 2026
Maine’s unique ranked-choice voting system, which allows voters to rank candidates by preference rather than voting for just one, could prove to be a game-changer in the 2026 Senate race. This system was introduced in 2018 and has since become an important feature of Maine’s electoral process. In the 2020 election, Collins narrowly defeated Gideon, who came within striking distance of winning, thanks in part to ranked-choice voting.
If Collins runs for re-election in 2026, the ranked-choice system could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome, especially if Democrats manage to consolidate support behind a single candidate. If the Democratic candidate can rally the progressive base and secure a significant portion of independent voters, Collins may struggle to maintain a commanding lead. In this scenario, it would be crucial for Collins to secure more than 50% of the vote in the first round to avoid the possibility of losing in the second round of voting.
For Maine voters, ranked-choice voting offers a way to express their preferences more accurately, allowing them to rank candidates based on their level of support. In a polarized political environment, this system helps ensure that the candidate who ultimately wins the election has broad support across party lines. For Collins, this could be both an advantage and a challenge, depending on how the electorate’s preferences shake out in the coming years.
Collins’ Challenges in 2026: A Changing Political Landscape
While Collins has been able to win over independent and moderate voters in the past, the political landscape in Maine is rapidly changing. The 2020 election saw President Joe Biden win the state by a significant margin, reinforcing Maine’s shift toward the Democratic Party in national elections. In fact, Biden’s victory in Maine was just two percentage points shy of his win in 2020, which reflects the growing trend of voters in the state aligning with the Democratic Party.
In addition to the changing political dynamics, Collins will face significant challenges from within her own party. Over the years, Collins has earned a reputation as one of the few moderate Republican voices in the Senate, but her compromises with the Democratic Party have earned her criticism from the right. As the GOP continues to shift further right under the influence of figures like former President Donald Trump, Collins may find it increasingly difficult to maintain her moderate status within the party.
Collins’ standing with her party has already been tested, especially after her votes on key issues such as the confirmation of Trump’s judicial nominees and her opposition to certain Trump policies. As Republicans become more entrenched in their conservative positions, Collins’ ability to appeal to both Republicans and independents may become more difficult.
The 2026 Senate Race: A Crucial Battleground for Both Parties
If Collins runs for re-election in 2026, Maine’s Senate race is expected to be one of the most competitive in the country. The 2020 election marked the closest race of Collins’ career, and 2026 may prove to be even more contentious, especially with the growing strength of the Democratic Party in the state. Collins’ vote on key issues, including her role in confirming Supreme Court justices and her stance on healthcare reform, will likely be scrutinized by voters in the years leading up to the election.
The Republican Party’s national struggles in the wake of Trump’s presidency may also have a significant impact on the race. As the GOP grapples with its identity post-Trump, Collins may find herself caught between her desire to maintain her political independence and the pressure to align with the more conservative factions of her party. This dynamic will be crucial as she navigates her campaign for re-election.
On the Democratic side, Maine is seen as a potential pickup opportunity, particularly if the party can capitalize on the growing discontent among voters with Collins’ leadership. The 2026 midterms could be shaped by a “blue wave” similar to the one that materialized in the 2018 midterms, when Democrats gained control of the House of Representatives. In this scenario, the Senate race in Maine could be a critical battleground for Democrats hoping to regain control of the upper chamber.
Collins’ Political Future: Will She Run in 2026?
Despite the overwhelming opposition to her re-election from Maine voters, Collins has made it clear that she intends to run for a fifth term in 2026. In a statement to The Washington Examiner, Collins said, “I’m focused on the appropriations process, not elections right now, but my intention is to run.” While Collins’ statement indicates that she plans to stay focused on her current legislative responsibilities, the political environment in 2026 may force her to reconsider her bid for re-election.
Maine’s political landscape is becoming increasingly competitive, and the 2026 Senate race is expected to be a major test for both parties. Collins will need to find a way to navigate the shifting dynamics in the state, appeal to both her Republican base and independent voters, and fend off Democratic challengers who will likely view her seat as a prime opportunity for a pickup.
Conclusion: Maine’s Political Landscape and the Future of Collins’ Senate Seat
As Maine voters continue to express discontent with Senator Susan Collins’ decision to run for re-election, the 2026 Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched races in the country. With growing opposition from Democrats, independents, and even Republicans, Collins faces significant challenges in maintaining her seat.
While Collins’ reputation as a moderate Republican has earned her support in the past, the changing political climate in Maine and the country at large will likely complicate her path to victory. Ranked-choice voting, a dynamic political landscape, and the increasing competitiveness of Maine’s Senate race all point to a high-stakes election in 2026.
In the coming years, Collins will need to make critical decisions about her political future, navigating the pressures of her party and the desires of Maine voters. The outcome of this race could have a significant impact not only on the future of her career but also on the broader political landscape of the Senate.
Adrian Hawthorne is a celebrated author and dedicated archivist who finds inspiration in the hidden stories of the past. Educated at Oxford, he now works at the National Archives, where preserving history fuels his evocative writing. Balancing archival precision with creative storytelling, Adrian founded the Hawthorne Institute of Literary Arts to mentor emerging writers and honor the timeless art of narrative.