For weeks, whispers in Washington hinted that the next round of presidential approval ratings would be bad. Not just ordinary-bad — historic.
Now, the numbers are in. And the truth, depending on who you ask, either confirms what the media’s been saying for months… or exposes just how divided the United States has become under Donald J. Trump’s second presidency.
But before the numbers even landed, the president already knew what was coming.
A President Under Pressure
Nine months into his second term, Donald Trump has proven that a presidency can be louder, faster, and more relentless the second time around.
He began this term exactly how he ended the first — swinging.
Executive orders. Cabinet shake-ups. Sudden trade reversals. Immigration crackdowns. A war of words with the media, the universities, and the legal establishment.
To his supporters, this is what “America First” looks like in action. To his critics, it’s a rerun of the same chaos that once exhausted a nation.
Either way, Trump has refused to change.
When asked by reporters earlier this month if he planned to “tone it down,” the president’s response was instant:
“You don’t fix a broken country by whispering,” he said. “You do it by shouting truth louder than the lies.”
It was classic Trump — unfiltered, unapologetic, and impossible to ignore.
But behind the scenes, his team was watching something that no rally or slogan could drown out: the polls.
The Numbers Americans Can’t Ignore
According to the latest YouGov national survey, Trump’s overall approval rating has dropped into dangerous territory — the lowest since returning to office.
Only 41% of Americans currently approve of the job he’s doing. 52% disapprove.
That’s a far cry from the post-inauguration optimism that briefly pushed him above 50% last January, when even skeptics admitted his early economic moves looked promising.
Then came the reversals.
The trade fights.
The tariff hikes.
The media battles that seemed to dominate every week.
And the optimism evaporated almost overnight.
Even among Republican voters, once near-total loyalty has started to fracture. YouGov found that 82% of Republicans still support Trump — an impressive number — but it’s five points lower than the peak of his first term. Among independents, the picture is brutal: only 32% approve, while nearly two-thirds disapprove.
Those are the numbers that make or break a presidency.
Cracks in Trump Country
Perhaps most alarming for Republicans, the polling breakdown by state shows that the erosion isn’t limited to blue strongholds.
Support has softened in the places once described as the beating heart of “Trump Country.”
In Ohio, Trump’s approval has dropped from 57% to 48%.
In Iowa, from 55% to 46%.
And in Florida, long his adopted political fortress, he now sits below 50% for the first time since 2019.
The slide is sharpest among suburban voters — the same bloc that swung narrowly back to Trump in 2024, helping him reclaim the presidency.
“The pattern is unmistakable,” said political analyst Peter Hartwell. “Voters who once held their nose and voted for Trump because they believed he could fix the economy are now questioning whether the constant confrontation is worth it.”
But Trump doesn’t see it that way.
“The Polls Are Rigged”
In a fiery interview with Fox News anchor Martha MacCallum last week, Trump was confronted with the falling numbers head-on.
He didn’t flinch.
“Well, when the factories start opening — and they will — you’ll see the numbers change,” he said, waving off the data as “garbage from bad pollsters.”
Then he took direct aim at Fox itself.
“Fox polling,” he said. “I’ve told you before — it’s the worst polling I’ve ever had. I told Rupert Murdoch, go get yourself a new pollster because he stinks.”
It wasn’t the first time Trump dismissed the numbers.
It likely won’t be the last.
To the president, approval ratings are just another media weapon — another narrative built to weaken him.
“The fake news loves their fake polls,” he posted later that evening on Truth Social. “But the people know the truth — the country is winning again, and they feel it.”
Why the Numbers Matter
Still, analysts warn that even Trump’s base should take the figures seriously.
Approval ratings aren’t just symbolic; they shape momentum. They influence markets, diplomacy, and Congress itself.
“When a president’s approval drops below 45%, lawmakers in his own party start to calculate differently,” said historian Elaine Berns, who has tracked presidential popularity since the 1980s. “They become less willing to take political risks for him.”
Berns noted that this is particularly dangerous ahead of next year’s midterms.
Historically, the president’s party loses an average of 28 House seats when his approval is below 45%.
That’s why Trump’s latest numbers have rattled even his staunchest allies in the Senate.
One Republican strategist put it bluntly:
“It’s not the floor that scares us,” he said. “It’s the ceiling. There’s no indication that Trump can get back above 50%.”
What Americans Are Angry About
The YouGov poll broke down the issues driving dissatisfaction — and they’re not limited to one side of the aisle.
Among Republicans, 35% said they were “frustrated” by the administration’s handling of tariffs, which some blame for slowing the stock market and raising consumer prices.
Among Democrats and independents, the criticism centers on tone — and trust.
62% said Trump “stokes division.”
55% said he “undermines the rule of law.”
And 49% said they “no longer believe what he says about the economy.”
Even on issues that once defined his appeal — crime, immigration, and trade — support has fallen.
In 2024, nearly 60% of Americans said Trump’s immigration stance was “about right.” Now, fewer than half agree.
“People expected order,” said polling expert James Robshaw. “What they see is constant confrontation.”
The Demographic Divide
As in 2016 and 2024, Trump’s strongest base remains older, white, male, and non-college-educated voters — the very demographic that helped deliver his comeback victory.
But his losses among younger voters, women, and minorities continue to deepen.
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Under-30 voters: 72% disapprove of Trump’s performance.
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Black voters: 81% disapprove.
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Latino voters: 63% disapprove.
In 2024, Trump had made modest inroads among Hispanic men, particularly in Texas and Florida. But those gains have eroded.
“The message that once resonated — jobs, security, strength — is being drowned out by chaos,” said Democratic strategist Maria Gonzalez.
Yet, despite the shifting demographics, no Democrat has yet emerged with approval ratings that look much better.
Kamala Harris’s favorability stands at just 39%, while Gavin Newsom’s hovers around 37%.
In other words, the country may be tired of Trump — but it hasn’t fallen in love with anyone else.
Trump’s Counter-Narrative: “We’re Winning”
If Trump is rattled by the numbers, he doesn’t show it.
In speeches across Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona this month, he has doubled down on the message that his administration is delivering — even if the media refuses to admit it.
At a rally in Pittsburgh, Trump told the crowd:
“They can print all the fake polls they want — but I’ll tell you what’s real. Gas is cheaper, crime is down, the border is tighter, and factories are coming back. The fake news doesn’t want you to believe it, but you see it with your own eyes.”
He even mocked the pollsters directly.
“YouGov?” he said. “I call them You’re Wrong.”
The crowd roared.
It’s a familiar strategy — portraying himself as the underdog hero fighting both the establishment and the media.
And politically, it still works.
Despite everything, Trump’s favorability among his base remains sky-high. In the latest Rasmussen poll, 89% of self-identified MAGA voters said they would “definitely” vote for him again.
That’s loyalty most politicians could only dream of.
Why the Polls Don’t Scare Him
To understand Trump’s defiance, you have to understand his relationship with polls — and with power.
He’s spent his career defying the experts.
In 2015, they said he’d never win a primary.
In 2016, they said he’d never win the presidency.
In 2020, they said he’d be finished after losing re-election.
In 2024, he returned to the White House anyway.
“They’ve been wrong about me every single time,” he often reminds audiences. “Why should I believe them now?”
To many voters — especially those who feel ignored by traditional institutions — that defiance isn’t arrogance. It’s authenticity.
“He says what we think,” said a Trump supporter interviewed outside a rally in Phoenix. “And he doesn’t care what they say about him. That’s strength.”
What Comes Next
Trump’s political team has already begun to fight back against the negative coverage, arguing that the media is cherry-picking data.
Campaign advisor Chris LaCivita told reporters that the polls “reflect feelings, not facts.”
“The truth is, we have 12 million more jobs than a year ago,” he said. “Inflation has fallen every quarter. Wages are climbing. People may be frustrated, but the fundamentals are strong.”
Still, even allies admit there’s a risk.
“Approval ratings like this can become self-fulfilling,” said one Republican senator. “Once people start believing a president is unpopular, it’s harder to rally around him — even within his own party.”
Democrats, meanwhile, are seizing the opportunity.
In a post on X, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer wrote:
“Donald Trump’s approval ratings are falling for one simple reason — Americans are waking up to the damage his chaos is doing to the country.”
The Numbers Don’t Lie — But They Don’t Tell the Whole Story
Polls capture opinion. They don’t capture conviction.
Trump’s movement has always been about emotion more than data — anger at elites, distrust of media, and a belief that one man is fighting for a forgotten America.
That’s why, even with approval numbers below 45%, he can still fill stadiums. It’s why tens of thousands still wait hours in line just to see him speak.
He’s not a politician to them.
He’s a symbol.
And in that sense, low poll numbers aren’t a sign of weakness.
They’re proof of the fight.
The Bottom Line
The new approval ratings are, without question, a wake-up call for the Trump administration.
The economy is fragile. The border remains chaotic. Public patience is thinning.
But history has shown that Donald Trump thrives in moments like these — when the world counts him out.
As he told reporters before boarding Air Force One this week:
“The fake news says the numbers are down. I say America’s going up. We’re winning — and the best is yet to come.”
For better or worse, America’s most polarizing president is once again defying gravity — and betting that belief will matter more than numbers.
Adrian Hawthorne is a celebrated author and dedicated archivist who finds inspiration in the hidden stories of the past. Educated at Oxford, he now works at the National Archives, where preserving history fuels his evocative writing. Balancing archival precision with creative storytelling, Adrian founded the Hawthorne Institute of Literary Arts to mentor emerging writers and honor the timeless art of narrative.