When Blue Turns Red: The Political Earthquake Shaking New Jersey

This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.

In the carefully choreographed world of New Jersey politics, where party loyalty has traditionally been as predictable as the tides, a rebellion is brewing that threatens to upend decades of Democratic dominance. The defection of a prominent Democratic mayor to the Republican Party represents more than just one politician’s change of heart—it signals a potential realignment that could reshape the political landscape of America’s most densely populated state.

The scene that unfolded Thursday at a Garfield gymnasium, where several hundred people gathered to witness a political conversion, carries symbolic weight that extends far beyond Bergen County. What drove a Democratic mayor to publicly abandon his party and embrace Republican leadership speaks to deeper currents of dissatisfaction that may be reshaping voter allegiances across the Garden State.

The Mayor Who Couldn’t Stay Silent

Garfield Mayor Everett E. Garnto Jr.’s decision to formally switch parties and announce his support for Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli represents a calculated political risk that few local officials are willing to take. Party switching at the mayoral level, particularly in a Democratic-leaning state like New Jersey, can mean the end of political support networks, funding streams, and institutional backing that elected officials depend upon.

Yet Garnto felt compelled to make this dramatic break, declaring that “the state is broken” in language that resonates with growing frustration among New Jersey residents across the political spectrum. His announcement at the Garfield rally wasn’t just a quiet party registration change—it was a public repudiation of Democratic governance under Governor Phil Murphy that demands examination.

“For the last seven and a half years, [Gov.] Phil Murphy’s policies have left us with sky-high taxes, soaring electric bills, and less safe communities,” Garnto stated, articulating grievances that Republican candidates have consistently highlighted but that carry more weight coming from someone who until recently stood within Democratic ranks.

The specificity of Garnto’s critique—taxes, utility costs, and public safety—reflects issues that cut across ideological lines and affect working-class and middle-class families regardless of partisan affiliation. These aren’t abstract policy debates but rather kitchen-table concerns that shape voters’ daily experiences and political decisions.

Garnto’s background adds credibility to his criticisms and his decision to switch parties. As a former school board member who spent twelve years as president of the Garfield Police Benevolent Association Local 46, he represents exactly the kind of blue-collar Democrat that the party has been losing across the country. His law enforcement connections and community roots make him harder to dismiss as a opportunistic politician simply chasing electoral advantage.

The Trump Connection: A Realignment Catalyst

Garnto’s revelation that he supported Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election provides crucial context for understanding his party switch. This wasn’t a sudden conversion but rather the culmination of a political journey that had already led him to cross party lines in the most consequential race in American politics.

The electoral data from Garfield tells a compelling story about political realignment in real time. Trump won the municipality by approximately nine points in 2024—a significant margin in a state where Democrats typically dominate. Even more revealing is the comparison to the 2021 gubernatorial race, when Governor Murphy narrowly carried Garfield by just three points.

This twelve-point swing between the gubernatorial and presidential races in the same community suggests that many Garfield Democrats were willing to vote for Trump while still supporting their state’s Democratic governor. Garnto’s journey from Murphy supporter to Ciattarelli backer mirrors this evolution and may predict broader trends in New Jersey politics.

The Trump effect on local politics cannot be understated. The former president’s appeal to working-class voters, particularly in communities like Garfield with significant law enforcement and blue-collar populations, has created opportunities for Republican candidates to reach voters who might have been reliably Democratic in previous generations.

Ciattarelli’s Strategy: Building a Coalition of the Disaffected

Jack Ciattarelli’s ability to attract Democratic defectors like Garnto reflects a deliberate strategy to build a coalition that transcends traditional partisan boundaries. His campaign has focused on presenting himself as a pragmatic alternative to Democratic governance rather than an ideological conservative, a positioning that may resonate in a blue-leaning state.

The former assemblyman’s highlight of Dover Mayor James P. Dodd’s endorsement—another Democrat backing the Republican gubernatorial candidate—suggests that Garnto’s defection is not an isolated incident but part of a pattern. Ciattarelli argues that such endorsements reflect growing frustration among moderate Democrats with state party leadership, a narrative that could be particularly powerful in a state where many voters identify as moderate or independent.

The bipartisan endorsement strategy serves multiple purposes for Ciattarelli’s campaign. It provides cover for Democratic voters considering crossing party lines, validates his claim to be a unifying rather than divisive figure, and creates media narratives about Democratic dissatisfaction that can be more powerful than traditional campaign messaging.

Ciattarelli’s appeal to law enforcement, labor unions, and local officials represents sophisticated coalition-building that recognizes how political realignment actually occurs—not through ideological conversion but through practical concerns about governance, economic conditions, and quality of life issues.

The Dead Heat: A Race Too Close to Call

The Emerson College survey showing Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill tied at 43% each provides quantitative evidence that New Jersey’s gubernatorial race has become genuinely competitive. In a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor since Chris Christie in 2013, and where Democrats hold significant structural advantages, a tied race represents a remarkable achievement for the GOP.

The poll, conducted among 935 likely voters on September 22-23, reveals that 11% of voters remain undecided with Election Day just months away. This large pool of persuadable voters means that both campaigns have significant opportunities to move the needle through effective messaging, candidate performance, and ground game execution.

The 3% supporting “another choice” suggests that third-party or independent candidates may play a role in determining the outcome, potentially siphoning votes from one major party candidate or another in ways that could prove decisive in a close race.

President Trump’s amplification of the poll results on Truth Social demonstrates his continued involvement in down-ballot races and his willingness to use his platform to boost Republican candidates. His post praising Ciattarelli as “tough on crime and cutting taxes” and predicting he “will be a GREAT Governor” provides the kind of high-profile endorsement that can energize Republican base voters.

Trump’s characterization of Sherrill as supporting “Open Borders (again!), men playing in Women’s Sports, Transgender for everyone, and all of the things that almost DESTROYED America” represents the kind of culture-war framing that has proven effective in motivating conservative voters. His additional jab that she is “a big supporter of the perhaps future Communist Mayor of New York City” attempts to tie Sherrill to unpopular progressive politicians and policies.

The Policy Battlefield: Taxes, Ethics, and Economic Anxiety

The substantive policy debates between Ciattarelli and Sherrill reveal the issues that will likely determine the race’s outcome. Taxation has emerged as a central theme, with Ciattarelli promising not to raise the sales tax while emphasizing his commitment to cutting income and property taxes.

In a state known for having some of the highest property taxes in the nation, Ciattarelli’s tax-cutting message resonates with homeowners who feel increasingly burdened by the cost of living in New Jersey. The ability to deliver on such promises remains questionable given the state’s fiscal constraints, but the political appeal is undeniable.

Ciattarelli’s accusation that Sherrill violated disclosure laws regarding stock dealings in defense and technology equities represents an attempt to raise ethics questions that could damage her credibility. By citing reporting from respected outlets like the New York Times and Business Insider, Ciattarelli lends credibility to allegations that might otherwise be dismissed as partisan attacks.

Sherrill’s defense of her record and promise to “drive down your cost at every level” represents her effort to compete on economic issues rather than ceding this terrain to her Republican opponent. Her challenge is convincing voters that Democratic governance can deliver economic relief when the current Democratic governor has presided over the cost-of-living increases that drive voter discontent.

Labor’s Split: Unions Breaking with Democrats

The endorsement of Ciattarelli by the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 825, representing more than 7,000 members, represents a potentially significant crack in the traditional Democratic coalition. Labor unions have been pillars of Democratic political power in New Jersey for generations, making their defection particularly consequential.

The union’s explanation for backing Ciattarelli—appreciation for his openness to natural gas projects and concerns about Sherrill’s focus on solar energy—reveals how climate and energy policy have created divisions between Democrats and traditional labor constituencies. Workers in energy-intensive industries increasingly view Democratic environmental policies as threatening their livelihoods.

Union president Greg Lalevee’s statement that Ciattarelli “understands New Jersey” and its cost-of-living problems suggests that economic anxiety may be overriding traditional partisan loyalties for some union members. This development could presage broader labor movement away from automatic Democratic support if economic concerns continue to overshadow other considerations.

Former Democratic Assemblyman Jamel Holley’s endorsement of Ciattarelli, calling his campaign “the right way forward,” provides additional evidence that moderate Democrats see opportunity for change. Holley’s backing carries particular weight given his insider knowledge of state Democratic politics and his willingness to publicly break with his former party.

The Wrong Track: Voter Pessimism and Political Opportunity

The finding from National Research Inc.’s June poll that 54% of New Jersey voters believe the state is on the wrong track provides crucial context for understanding the political environment Ciattarelli is attempting to exploit. This level of dissatisfaction creates opportunities for the opposition party that don’t exist when voters feel generally satisfied with current conditions.

The poll’s revelation that this “wrong track” group strongly supports Ciattarelli suggests he has successfully positioned himself as the change candidate, despite being a known political figure who previously ran for governor. The ability to represent change while avoiding the risks associated with complete political newcomers gives Ciattarelli advantages that more typical opposition candidates might not enjoy.

The three-point lead for Sherrill in the June poll—45% to 42%—compared to the tied race in September suggests momentum may be shifting toward Ciattarelli. While individual polls should be interpreted cautiously, the trend line appears favorable for the Republican candidate as the race enters its final stretch.

Independent and Crossover Appeal: The Path to Victory

Ciattarelli’s strong support among independent voters and disaffected Democrats represents his most viable path to victory in a state where registered Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans. His campaign’s focus on these persuadable voters reflects strategic sophistication about what it takes to win in New Jersey’s political environment.

The willingness of some Democrats to publicly support Ciattarelli provides social permission for other Democrats to consider crossing party lines. When party switching is seen as betrayal, few voters will risk social opprobrium by publicly supporting the opposition. But when respected local officials model such behavior, it becomes normalized and more politically acceptable.

Ciattarelli’s positioning as a moderate Republican focused on practical governance rather than ideological warfare appeals to exactly the kind of suburban, educated, and economically anxious voters who will determine the race’s outcome. His challenge is maintaining this moderate image while keeping conservative base voters engaged and motivated.

The National Implications: New Jersey as Bellwether

While gubernatorial races are primarily about state issues, the competitiveness of New Jersey’s contest carries national implications for both parties. A Ciattarelli victory would suggest that Republican gains in 2024 presidential voting are translating into down-ballot success and that Democratic vulnerability extends beyond the White House.

For Democrats, losing the New Jersey governorship would represent a devastating blow to party morale and raise serious questions about their ability to maintain control of blue-leaning states. The loss of both Virginia and New Jersey governorships in the same cycle could signal a broader Republican resurgence that threatens Democratic positions across the country.

The race also provides insight into whether Trump’s coalition-building success in 2024 represents a durable realignment or a temporary phenomenon tied to his personal appeal. If Ciattarelli can win by holding together the Trump coalition while adding traditional suburban Republicans uncomfortable with Trump himself, it suggests a winning formula that other Republican candidates could replicate.

Looking Forward: The Final Stretch

With Election Day approaching and the race effectively tied, both campaigns face crucial decisions about resource allocation, messaging strategy, and voter mobilization. The large pool of undecided voters means that late-deciding factors—debates, October surprises, ground game effectiveness—could prove decisive.

Ciattarelli’s challenge is maintaining momentum while avoiding mistakes that could remind voters why they typically support Democrats in statewide races. He must simultaneously energize Republican base voters, reassure moderate independents, and appeal to disaffected Democrats—a delicate balancing act that requires message discipline and strategic sophistication.

Sherrill faces the challenge of defending unpopular Democratic policies while convincing voters she represents change from the Murphy administration whose legacy burdens her campaign. Her advantage in party registration must be activated through effective turnout operations, particularly in heavily Democratic urban areas where running up the score is essential to offsetting Republican strength in suburban and rural counties.

Conclusion: A State at a Crossroads

The defection of Garfield Mayor Everett Garnto and other Democratic officials to support Jack Ciattarelli represents more than isolated political opportunism—it signals potential realignment in New Jersey politics driven by economic anxiety, quality-of-life concerns, and dissatisfaction with Democratic governance.

Whether this translates into electoral victory for Ciattarelli remains uncertain, but the competitive nature of the race itself represents a significant achievement in a state where Republicans have struggled to compete in statewide elections. The combination of Trump’s coattails, economic discontent, and effective coalition-building has created an opportunity that seemed implausible just years ago.

For New Jersey voters, the choice between Ciattarelli and Sherrill represents competing visions of the state’s future—one promising tax relief and tough-on-crime policies, the other defending progressive achievements while pledging economic improvements. The decision they make will not only determine their governor but potentially signal broader trends about American politics in an era of realignment and political volatility.

As the campaign enters its final phase, both candidates understand that in a tied race, every endorsement matters, every debate performance counts, and every vote could prove decisive. The defection of Democratic officials like Garnto may prove to be the kind of signal that presages broader electoral shifts—or merely an interesting footnote in a race that ultimately produces conventional results. Only November will tell.